As the current saying goes, everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts!

No matter how tough you think you are or how good you think you are at hiding your emotions, buying or selling a home is an emotional affair. Even hard-nosed property investors will get at least a little miffed at missing out on a deal. When emotions take over, rational thinking can fly out the window….

Here are some examples of real estate irrational thinking:

• My Zesstimate must be right, it’s a computer and it’s higher than what my Realtor said my home is worth!
• That $25,000 kitchen remodel increased my home’s value by $50,000!
• I’m not giving my home away for nothing!
• I’ll never get to buy a home, everyone knows that EVERY home is selling way over asking with multiple offers!
• That home is way over-priced. I’ll offer $20,000 less than asking (this despite there being 5 other offers).
• And yes, even we Realtors are not immune to irrational thinking… “I’d be happy to list your way over-priced home!”

When buying or selling a home, it’s wise to get a grip on reality with real numbers. 

Yes, dry and boring real estate statistics they might well be, but they will help you make rational and educated decisions. If you chose to ignore them, good luck relying on your gut or uncle Bob's insights, (he of the perpetual rental status). The same numbers work equally well for both buyers and sellers

Here’s are the real estate numbers to live by... or at...

How does the current Ballard Seattle real estate market compare to the 2007 bubble market?

Around 10 years ago in 2007, the US real estate market began to implode and dragged Seattle along with it. The Seattle market was one of the last major cities to be affected and one of the first to emerge from the bottom of the market in 2012.

Today, the Ballard and Seattle real estate markets are booming, with Seattle consistently being at, or near, the top of US cities for home price increases.

Ballard Seattle is a sought after neighborhood by many home buyers. Ballard has it all! Just like all Seattle neighborhoods, Ballard Seattle homes for sale are attracting multiple offers and about 50% of Ballard homes selling for above list price.

So how does Ballard Seattle real estate in 2018 compare to the last price surge in 2007?

I looked at the following real estate statistics for between 2005 and 2017.

1. Median sale price.
2. Number of months of inventory.
3. Ratio of the sale price to the list price.
4. The number of homes for sale compared to the number of sold homes.

All data was taken from the North West Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Note that MLS data only goes back to 2005, no data is available for the years prior to that.

Ballard Seattle homes for sale price trend.

The graph below shows how the Ballard real estate market peaked in 2007 with a median sale price of $490,000 and subsequently dropped by 19% to $398,000 by early 2012. 

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People always overdo the matter when they attempt deception.  Charles Dudley Warner.

Virtual staging and (real) home staging are similar but only in that they share the word "staging".

With improvements in virtual staging software, virtual staging has become a cheap “alternative” to hiring a professional company when staging a home.

Staging a home for sale: should you use virtual staging?

There are obvious pros and cons for each of these two options, the biggest one being cost. However, just because virtual home staging costs a lot less does not necessarily make it a good idea. It can be a case of being penny wise, pound foolish.

For the purposes of comparing virtual staging and hiring a professional staging company, I will be comparing the staging of vacant homes where the sellers haveto  move out and the home is completely empty.

What is home staging? 

In general terms, home staging means getting your home ready for market and making it look it’s absolute best….both the interior and exterior. Home staging includes doing all the nitty-gritty stuff like cleaning the home so it’s Q-tip clean, decluttering, doing any needed repairs, landscaping, painting and taking care of curb appeal... and the actual staging with furniture and accessories.

Professional home stagers can put together a home staging checklist for the sellers that includes all the nitty-gritty items that need to be completed. However, for Ballard Seattle real estate at least, the real estate agent usually provides the sellers with home staging tips and an action item list to make sure...

How competitive is Ballard Seattle real estate for single Family homes and condos?

In the current strong sellers' real estate market in Seattle, home buyers are having to compete to buy a home.  The housing inventory is, and has been for a few years, acutely low. Home buyers will probably feel like every home is getting multiple offers and  selling for well above list price. Some buyers will give up trying to buy a home and  feel like they will never get  their foot in the home ownership door.

Are all homes for sale in Ballard Seattle WA really selling for above list price with multiple offers?

So, what is the reality of the current Ballard Seattle WA real estate market?

I looked at sale statistics for Ballard single family homes (houses and townhomes) and condos that sold over the 3 month period up to the middle of January 2018.

All data was pulled from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Data was combined for the area covering Ballard, Loyal Heights, Sunset Hill and Whittier Heights neighborhoods.

Note that is the middle of winter when the market is usually "slower" than the spring and summer months.  In this market, slower is a relative term.

Ballard single family homes:

I looked at the sales of single family homes in 3 different price ranges:

1. Less than $750,000
2. Between $750,000 and $1,000,000
3. Above $1,000,000

The percentage of homes that sold for above, below and for list price for the 3 different price ranges is shown below:

When you look at the ratio of the sale price...

They say don't look a gift horse in the mouth. But when it's a Trojan horse, you do! - Eric Johnson

Usually, as part of the home buying process, the buyer hires a licensed home inspector to inspect the home so they know what they are purchasing. However, sometimes, the seller will pre-inspect the home before listing it for sale and share that home inspection report with interested buyers.

There are two specific uses of a seller home inspection:

1. The sellers do a pre-listing inspection of their home for the purposes of finding and fixing any issues before putting the home on the market.
2. The sellers do a pre-listing inspection their home for the purposes of finding and fixing any issues before putting the home on the market AND intend to provide a free copy of the home inspection report to potential home buyers as a marketing strategy.

The usual home purchase procedure is for the buyer to do a home inspection AFTER the seller has accepted their offer. The buyer then has about 10 days to complete the inspection and get their home inspection report. The buyer can then either accept the home as-is, request some repairs and/or a price drop, or just walk on the sale and get their earnest money back.

The inspection will include the (1) home itself and the property it sits on (2) the sewer line from the home to the main sewer line in the street (depending on the age of the home) or alternatively (3) the septic system if the home is not connected to the sewer system. Note that in WA State at least, septic inspections are done after mutual acceptance and is paid for by the sellers.

In a hot sellers' market, like the current Seattle real estate market,...

Homes for sale in Ballard Seattle are a popular option with many home buyers. Ballard is a great, self-contained neighborhood with lots to keep you occupied but also a quick hop to downtown Seattle.

Home buyers often inquire as to how Ballard Seattle home prices vary in different parts of the neighborhood. The Ballard neighborhood Seattle, or let's say the "greater Ballard area" starts with Whittier Heights to the east and extends to the appropriately named Sunset Hill area to the west, with Loyal Heights in between.

do Ballard Seattle homes prices increase as you move closer to the water? 

I looked at home sales in the following 4 sections of Ballard (see map below):

1. Between 8th and 15th Ave NW (includes Whittier Heights area).
2. Between 15th and 24th Ave NW and NW 85th Street. 
3. Between 24th and 32nd Ave NW (includes Loyal Heights homes).
4. West of 32nd Ave NW (Sunset Hill area).

All section were bordered by NW 85th Street to the north and NW Market Street to the south. The 4 sections were chosen based on the main north-south arterial roads through the Ballard neighborhood Seattle.

I looked at the sale of all Ballard single family homes (houses and townhomes). The data does not include condos. I looked at homes that sold over the 6 month period from July through December 2017. All data were extracted from the NWMLS.

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First time home buyer advice from me to me.

If my calculations are correct, when this baby hits 88 miles per hour... you're gonna see some serious sh**!  - Doc, Back To The Future.

I bought my own home in 2003, 5 years before I became a Seattle Realtor.

Was my home purchase flawless, perfect and stress-free? Absolutely not!

Looking back, do I think that I could have done some things better? You betcha! I did some things well but could have done better on others.

When you do something for a living, day in day out, things become second nature. Things seem, well…obvious. Having said that, as a Realtor you are always learning and always need to be learning. But compared to when I was a first time home buyer I’m now a veritable professor of all things real estate.

When I look back with my current Realtor mindset at my home buying experience, there are definitely certain things that I could have done better. 

I love my home. It wasn’t perfect when I bought it, it’s not perfect now and probably never will be. I bought a 3 bedroom red brick Tudor home in the Ballard neighborhood in Seattle. It was dated and had been on the market for about 5 weeks even though it was a strong, and getting stronger, seller's market. The minute I walked in the front door it was a case of "THIS IS THE ONE! Where do I sign?"

And so, if I had a time machine I could visit my younger self and give myself some first time home buyer advice.......

Learn the questions that will protect you when buying a condo.

The art and science of asking questions is the source of all knowledge  - Thomas Berger.

Condos are a popular option with many first time home buyers mainly because they are more affordable. They are also a good fit for home owners looking to downsize and have someone else take care of all the maintenance hassles.  Or if you want to be close to the hub of downtown life and stroll to bars, cafes an restaurants, then a condo is probably your only option.

There are pros and cons to buying a condo versus a house. However, buying a condo is not the same as buying a house. There's a whole other set of questions you need to ask when buying a condominium.

The answers to these questions will help you decide whether you should even make an offer in the first place or bail on the sale once you get all the facts.

Ideally, you want to get answers to as many of these questions BEFORE you make an offer. You want to avoid wasting your time (and the seller's) getting into a contract when there's a good chance you will bail once you have all the answers.

When it comes to buying a condominium, the problem is that it is not usually possible to get all the answers up front. You might have to make an offer first to get all the nitty-gritty details. This applies in particular to the infamous Resale Certificate, but more on that later.

Here's a list of the most important questions to ask when buying a  condo....

Statistically speaking, many Realtor market updates should be recycled immediately!

Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable - Mark Twain.

Probably the most common question Realtors get is "how's the market doing?" Home buyers and home owners are always interested in knowing what direction the market is headed in their particular neighborhood. A Realtor's personal experience in the trenches and good old gut feeling are good, but solid real estate statistics are better at conveying what the real estate market is really doing.

Real estate agents have access to lots of real estate statistics either through their Multiple Listing Service (MLS) or through real estate statistics software like TrendGraphix. However, it's how they select and use that data that matters. Some Realtors produce excellent market upates. However, just as some real estate advertising can be misleading, some real estate statistics are best avoided.

Real estate market reports are everywhere and are probably the most common type of blog post that real estate agents write. The great thing is that you can use the same template as the previous month and just copy and paste the whole thing, remove September's numbers and replace them with Octobers stat's. Then hit the publish button and you're done.

Statistically speaking however, many of those monthly reports that Realtors stick in the mail or mail out to their clients are at best "for amusement purposes...

Ballard real estate market update for houses: May through November 2017

Ballard Seattle is a popular choice for many home buyers and like much of Seattle, has seen a strong sellers market over the past few years. Obviously that's good news for sellers but it makes for a tough market for home buyers looking to get into the Ballard neighborhood.

If you are interetsed in Ballard Seattle homes for sale, or more specifically a Ballard house, here's an update on all the numbers you will need to give you a good idea idea of how the real esate market is doing in this Seattle neighborhood.

I looked at the sales of Ballard single family homes (houses only, excludes townhomes and condos) over the 6 month period covering May through October 2017. For reliable real estate statistics, it is always better to look at larger time periods rather than focusing in on any single month. All data was take form the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). 

This update specifically looks at houses only. Separate updates for Ballard condos and townhomes will follow in sepatate posts.

What's the average sale price of houses in Ballard?

I looked at the sale price of single family homes based on the number of bedrooms. Not unexpectedly, as the number of bedrooms increases, so does the average sale price. As shown below, prices averaged from $684,000 for 2-bedroom homes to $1,043,000 for Ballard houses with 4 or more bedrooms. Three bedroom single family homes sold for $816,000.

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Beware of real estate advertizing with lots of astericks!

The first law of advertising is to avoid the concrete promise and cultivate the delightfully vague.  John Crosby.

As with all advertising and advertisers' attempts to get you to buy their products and use their services, the real estate world is not immune to, let's say, over embellishing.  In an ocean of advertising, you have to do something to stand out I suppose. They need to hook your attention and hook it quickly before your short attention span, advertising-jaded mind, stumbles to the next exciting, act now offer.

Some embellishment is fine in general, but we're talking about real estate here, not a pair of striped socks for $4.99 on Amazon! This is your home and potentially involves thousands of your dollars, or worse, if you make a bad judgement call.

Here are some common types of real estate advertising targeted mainly at home owners that could potentially lead you down the garden path (and not in a good way).

Ad #1: Increadible low interest rates, refinance today!

The little brightly colored ad in the sidebar on your online newspaper, proclaims it can get you a 30 year fixed rate mortgage of 3.25%.

Amazing, you think to yourself. My bank just quoted me 4.0%. I should check these guys out.

You call the 1-800 number and someone in a state 2,000 miles away answers and then the sale pitch begins..... "Thank you for calling Too Good To Be True Mortgages, my name is Mark. Looks like you saw our great interest rate offer..... yada, yada yada!"

Mark now starts attempting to ingratiate himself to you. Eventually, after pulling teeth for 20 mins with Mark, you realize that...

Home buyer cold feet symptoms that sellers need to watch out for.

Once I make up my mind, I'm full of indecision!" Oscar Levant.

A seller puts their home on the market, gets an early offer and accepts it. A few days later, the home is back on the market. What went wrong?

I call the listing agent and they will say "the buyers got cold feet!"

The home goes back on the market and is now perceived differently by the home buying public. Even if the listing agent emphasizes that the buyer got cold feet and "didn't even do an inspection", it's human nature to suspect that maybe, just maybe, there's something wrong with the home. The home might be perfectly fine but try convincing everyone of that. The home has now lost a little of it's new listing luster. 

So for you home sellers, how do you try and weed out those buyers that are more likely to bail on the sale for a little or no good reason?

There is no foolproof way to tell whether a buyer is guaranteed to bolt or not. However, there are certain warning signs that you should keep an eye open for that potentially will help you identify those buyers that are prone to the condition. You want to try and identify those buyers that are more likely to get buyers remorse and exit stage left BEFORE you get into a contract with them.

Many buyers bail on a sale for legitimate reasons. For example, the inspection revealed a lot of unexpected issues or the appraisal came in well below the sale price and the sellers are unwilling to drop the price. However, you are trying to avoid hitching yourself to a  buyer...

Some people can rebuilt their car's engine and some of us wouldn’t know even how to replace a dead headlight bulb. For you go-getters out there, who like to go it alone without the middleman, good on ya and kudos for giving it a go… including trying to sell your home without an agent.

However, here’s the reality. According to statistics from the National Association of Realtors (yeah, those guys), your chances of successfully selling your home via the For Sale by Owner (FSBO) process is a mere 10%. Allegedly, for those FSBO homes that do sell, they sell for less than agent-assisted sales, however, you will save on agent commissions which will offset some of that diffeence. The odds are stacked against you and there are many reasons whys FSBOs fail to sell.

The focus of this post is not to get you all riled up telling you why you would be better off listing your home with a Realtor. I’ll leave that up to the 10 agents who will call your every day while your home is on the market, each jostling to convince you why you should list your home with them. Prepare to become very popular and screen your calls.

No, the focus of this post is to hopefully help you improve your odds of successfully going it alone and giving youself the opportunity to give us Realtors the proverbial middle finger. The vast majority of homes listed by agents do sell, while the vast majority of FSBOs don’t. So what’s the difference? Well, obviously, Realtors are doing something right and you just need to learn how to copy them.

Selling a home is not rocket science but a least try and do the basics properly so you improve the chances...

Debt is one person's liability, but another person's asset -  Paul Krugman.

The US real estate market is currently booming and  Seattle real estate is top of the heap.  At the time of writing this, Seattle home prices are up close to 13% year-over-year and a whopping  47% above the previous highs of 2007.

If you own a home, you might be gleefully looking at those newspaper headlines detailing the latest market surges, dwindling inventories and desperate buyers fighting it out trying to buy a home while driving prices upward. While sipping your morning coffee, you'll be silently pondering "I wonder how much my home is worth now?'

Yes indeed, times are great and homeownership is a great investment!

Or is it?

No, this is not an article about whether we are in the midst of another real estate bubble, but rather a look at how the biggest purchase of your life can be an asset or a liability, or neither.  Also, even if you walk away with $200,000 in your checking account after the sale of your home, was your home really an asset / good investment in the strict sense of the word?

A home can be a potential asset or quickly spiral into a financial albatross around your neck. Alternatively, your "investment" can just sit there and do nothing. Some things, like sudden economic changes, are out of your control, but others like taking too much equity out of your home to buy a speedboat are within the realm of human stupidity.

Historically, home prices have gone up in value but it's not a smooth, linear upward trend. Here's the Case-Shiller US home price index, adjusted for inflation, starting way back in 1890. Note that the index measures the changes in the sale price of single family homes that have sold previously...

One of the most common questions I get from home buyers is; “what do you recommend, should I go with a mortgage broker or should I go with a bank for my home loan?”

"Also, is a mortgage broker the same as a loan officer?"

"Is one better than the other?"

All good questions!

Although yes, finding yourself a good Realtor is vital to ensuring a smooth home purchase, a great mortgage professional is equally important to ensuring a successful closing.

During the home purchase process, you will spend way more time with your Realtor, driving around, looking at homes and a good personality fit helps. For your lender, however, you might see them once or twice, or maybe even never, through the whole purchase. However, they will be busy in the background doing their due diligence to ensure your financing is being taken care of.

For this article, I teamed up with mortgage expert Luke Skar of Inlanta Mortgage and MadisonMortgageGuys.com to help explain the difference between the two main sources for mortgages. We will look at the differences between mortgage brokers and banks, the pros and cons of each and just as importantly, how to find a good lender.

I’ll cover things from the Realtor/home buyer perspective, while Luke will go over the different types of lenders and the pros and cons of each option. Both of us will give you our opinions on how to find a good lender.

From the Realtor's perspective.

The importance of a good mortgage professional:

When I purchased my own home back before I became...

When you list your home for sale, the objective is to get buyers in the door, make them fall in love with the home and make a great offer for a smooth, hassle-free closing. Obviously, part of the aforementioned formula, is, well, letting people into your beloved home. People who you have never met before and probably never will, will be parading through your home and kicking tires. And yes, some of them will even pee in your pristine, spotless toilet!

This can be a stressful scenario for some home sellers, especially those who appreciate their privacy and those who keep their homes neater than a pin.

Very few people are willing to buy a home sight. Buyers will want to see your home in person before committing to making an offer and you need to make your home available to them.

Yes, it's your home and you are completely free to control buyer access to it. However, it is important, if at all possible, to make your home as accessible as possible for that first week after you hit the market to maximize your chances of a quick and successful sale. If you overly restrict access to you home, you are reducing your chances of getting the best possible price for it.

Will every buyer respect your home with the same level of respect you show it? To be brutally honest, probably not. It's best to be ready yourself for some minor, short-lived nuisances, but when you close it will be worth it all.

First of all, how do buyers get access to see your home?

The first way buyers come to see your home is by viewing the home with their agent. The Buyer will contact their Realtor and schedule a viewing...

Time to take a look at how the Ballard Seattle real estate market fared during the month of February 2017. February is usually a month where the market is starting to emerge from winter hibernation. Or at least that used to be the case. Because of the chronic low inventory of homes for sale, Ballard and other Seattle neighborhoods are staying competitive all year round now.  

The market remains very strong and for the past few months, Seattle has been either occupying the top spot or near the top as the hottest real estate market in the country. The low number of homes for sale remains the main factor driving prices upward. 

The major difference between different times of year is the variation in the number of homes for sales that naturally cycles through the lowest number in winter and then builds up to peak activity in the spring and early summer months.

The graphic below shows how homes for sale in Ballard Seattle compared in February 2017 versus 12 months earlier in February 2016.

Data summary:

• In February 2017, there was a total of 76 new listings (single family and condos combined) which was 11% lower than a year earlier.
• There was a big drop of 57% in the number of homes that sold.
• The average number of days that a Ballard home took to get...

It’s easy to get overwhelmed with information and advice from all directions as to the things you need to do when selling your home.  You read an article that details the 27 must-do items.  They couldn't come up with a nice round list of 30?

Selling your home is not rocket science. Do the fundamentals and do them well and your home should do really well too. 

In my personal opinion, these are the 3 critical, non-negotiable action items you need to focus on when selling your home. If you don’t do these 3 properly, then you are just leaving money sitting on the table or your home might not sell (even in a hot market). What you add in blood, sweat and hard cash will come back to you in shovelfuls at closing. 

Critical-P #1: Preparation

Stage your home inside AND out. By staging, I don’t mean just rearranging your furniture or hiring a staging company who bring in a few sticks of furniture and “voila, it looks simply daaaaarling darlings!”

By staging I mean, you make every square inch of your home and property (both inside and outside) look its very best. Yes, it’s a lot of work and is something you should start planning at last 6 months, or even better, a whole year before you intend to put your home on the market. Plan ahead and avoid stress overload later. Procrastination is over rated!

Here are some home preparation items to focus on. Preserve your sanity and hire some help rather than trying to do it all yourself. 

Declutter and start getting rid of stuff you haven't used on years. One word: Goodwill!

Make sure to focus on ...

Your home is about to hit the market. You did your homework and chose a really good Realtor who knows their stuff. Your home is looking the best it has looked in years. It looks so good now, you joke with your Realtor that you’ve changed your mind about selling.

You’ve decluttered, you’ve scrubbed and cleaned until the inside is Q-tip clean, you serviced the furnace and cleaned the roof and gutters. You've focused on the most important things to fix before listing a home. Fido and his GI issues are safely sequestered at Aunt Ellie’s. Your home is priced perfectly and those photos, in your humble opinion, are worthy of the front cover of Architectural Digest!

Your home is most certainly ready for prime time and the heaving masses of eager buyers.

The question is: are YOU PERSONALLY ready?

Obviously, getting your home ready is critical. However, you, yourself must also be prepared for the market and what is about to happen over the next few days, weeks and months.

Are you sure you really want to sell your home?

Yes, it’s getting a little late in the game but are you 100% committed to selling your home? What’s the real reason you want to sell?

People sell their homes for many reasons. Some have to sell because they are relocating for a new job and some have to sell because they lost a job. Some sell because the home has grown too small for their growing family and some sell because they have become empty-nesters and the home is now too big.

When the reason for selling is clear-cut,...